http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup daily 0.75 2016-10-27 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/wass-can monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477577533702-9DLXFZM4LDUUMG13RNGP/image-asset.jpeg Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 2 - The Democratic Congressional primary in the 23rd district shows an unexpected statistical pattern that favors Wasserman Schultz. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578134243-H2EFR66RYH02ZILT6PCM/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 4 - If Wasserman Schultz' results are divided by 2.5 and Canova's are multiplied by 2.5, the result is two straight lines. This type of precision argues against the pattern being caused by errors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477575498696-TJ4O0IS6TJX2E1BP2B7L/image-asset.jpeg Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Tim Canova https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578054253-1IGDIT4VCZZ93ZOGA8JD/image-asset.jpeg Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 3 - The pattern where Canova's percentage decreases as the precincts get larger is evident in both Miami-Dade and Broward County. Here the pattern is shown in the Miami-Dade precincts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477577397483-G361CDP71P0DZTTVJL6U/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 1 - The Republican Congressional primary in the 23rd district follows the expected statistical pattern. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477576971610-4PAMPOH7CCG1NQIFKGGT/image-asset.jpeg Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Debbie Wasserman Schultz with President Obama photo by Susan Walsh | AP https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578367178-FIQYC733O7C1W5HHKBDC/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 7 - When Wasserman Schultz receives 85% of the Black vote and 50% of the White vote, the projected race does not match the reported totals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477577612084-QJ8RHZ9VI80EY6UGUWOG/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 2A - There is a 10% difference between the expected statistical pattern and the results in this race. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578420018-I9FUY6TN7MT3IUI40DI5/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 8 - The reported totals exhibit a steeper increase from the smallest to the largest precincts than any combination of the actual votes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578251851-731PXOMD1TAY94YRXA8Z/fig5.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 5 - Cumulative analysis of all demographic groups supplied by the Supervisor of Elections of Broward County. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578319363-MCV52NFBYTNOILRES9PT/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 6 - Black registered voters increase in the larger precincts, but not enough to account for Wasserman Schultz' increased percentage. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578468704-6HBCBXOZS8W0OQ8PD07E/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 9 - If a 3.5% manufactured increase for Wasserman Schultz and a 3.5% manufactured decline for Canova are added to the actual votes, then the reported results can be created almost exactly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477578532661-3QT276TE38YI5R3KNNQE/image-asset.png Blog - AN UNPREDICTABLE, HIGH-STAKES ELECTION Figure 10 - With this division of the vote, the race maintains both the expected statistical pattern and the known demographic influences. In this scenario, Canova would have won the election. http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/8/6/coverage-on-the-hacking-of-the-machines-finally monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477580297177-6FNBQFW3C6ILMXDF8LY3/image-asset.jpeg Blog - HACKING THE MACHINES – COVERAGE FINALLY! Fig. 3 — Hand-counted ballots show a consistently higher return for Sanders in the 2016 New York presidential primary Graph by Anselmo Sampietro   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477580213958-S08ZCNZTX4XRS7NY0A1S/image-asset.png Blog - HACKING THE MACHINES – COVERAGE FINALLY! Fig. 2 — 2016 NY Dem pres primary Columbia Co. - this hand-counted county has an expected statistical pattern https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477580094816-CSVTH2NQILNS0H2RCUMZ/image-asset.png Blog - HACKING THE MACHINES – COVERAGE FINALLY! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477580615878-66AZH6AT2J3JWZ1860CH/image-asset.png Blog - HACKING THE MACHINES – COVERAGE FINALLY! Fig. 4 — 2016 New York Democratic presidential primary The Bronx County graph shows a strong correlation between precinct size and candidate percentage https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477580160652-1M6OBVK5JWWYXFDMW8KI/image-asset.png Blog - HACKING THE MACHINES – COVERAGE FINALLY! Fig. 1 — 2016 NY Dem pres primary. Richmond and Kings Co., show irregular statistical patterns http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/8/4/2016-gop-presidential-primary-shows-evidence-of-manipulation monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477588161956-M9A57P1G1PR8K7SA2BOG/image-asset.jpeg Blog - 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Shows Evidence of Manipulation https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477581310475-MFTDN8H7M5QO4KEF3K1X/image-asset.jpeg Blog - 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Shows Evidence of Manipulation http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/10/27/politico-2016-democratic-primary-election-results-could-be-off-by-1282 monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477588649393-S1AMLE8BFELNT4LF04EA/image-asset.png Blog - Politico: 2016 Democratic Primary Election Results Could be Off by 12.82% http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/7/29/estimates-of-irregularities monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477582345044-L9I5BZ1SB7ARXD7KGZAK/image-asset.png Blog - How Far Off Are the Election Results…? It Could be a Lot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477582425526-X5UQ1SZ0GPIW6SIENC0M/image-asset.jpeg Blog - How Far Off Are the Election Results…? It Could be a Lot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477582500592-L5CYA6ZP5N7FCXIU9GDY/image-asset.png Blog - How Far Off Are the Election Results…? It Could be a Lot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1477582445023-WTFJFTWWG064V8WMRW8J/image-asset.jpeg Blog - How Far Off Are the Election Results…? It Could be a Lot. http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/5/18/nevada-democratic-caucus-2-sides monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/2016/5/5/nyc-board-of-elections-commissioners-mtg-gets-volatile monthly 0.5 2016-10-27 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/category/Honest+Elections monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/CVT monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/NYC+Board+of+Elections monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/2016+Primary monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/Rigging monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/Holler+Back monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/2016+Election monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/Wisconsin monthly 0.5 http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/blogbackup/tag/Bernie monthly 0.5 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http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/originalreport daily 0.75 2016-08-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470255129754-NT3QXEV71H9O0LQ5288O/image-asset.jpeg Read the Original Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470283052259-KLA7IHP51O18UOT0CONA/image-asset.jpeg Read the Original Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470225011682-T6MOA1T89PD3TKAFAMRY/image-asset.png Read the Original Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470283269053-KNL4QEDFVU2FJ6UVR5CJ/image-asset.png Read the Original Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470255493273-N6OKYZ3DVDQH5T9RTVBV/image-asset.jpeg Read the Original Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470243455235-WJ1118QQZHHVCAQ3R9XJ/image-asset.png Read the Original Report http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/the-team daily 0.75 2018-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470298507475-19XMG1HZ0MQ893S5GSSG/image-asset.jpeg The Team https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470299239869-LC75SO7EXBEJ7NKASB6X/image-asset.jpeg The Team https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470843161484-J4B7SUTGZIOKNNDJ7PVM/image-asset.jpeg The Team http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/handcounted-graphs daily 0.75 2016-08-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470936184377-SVK2IKY6V9QKFLQKEUZ3/image-asset.png Hand-Counted Graphs https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470935996688-IC9EZ22YKK7MNZ9LB0HX/image-asset.png Hand-Counted Graphs http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/2016-democratic-primary-graphs daily 0.75 2016-08-16 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http://www.electoralsystemincrisis.org/report daily 1.0 2023-12-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480046551784-QE4ZRWFKZW6CAL24VLS5/Forest+Co+WI+2016+GE+Pres+Evans.png An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 1 - Washington County WI has an expected statistical pattern. The candidates' level of support stabilizes as more and more votes are counted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480042977862-JNL58Q9S5H6OC9996UKU/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 2B - Brown County WI has an unexpected statistical pattern. The candidates' percentages never stabilize even after 125,000 votes are counted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480054177478-F6JRB5GBW3V62FH6NBI6/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 4B is the same as 4A, but the Y-axis is expanded to show third party candidates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470225011682-T6MOA1T89PD3TKAFAMRY/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480053479833-6BF5KB4XS7J3AS5J8Y4J/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 4A - Virginia has an unexpected statistical pattern. The candidates' percentages never stabilize even after close to 4 million votes are counted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470255493273-N6OKYZ3DVDQH5T9RTVBV/image-asset.jpeg An Electoral System in Crisis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470283269053-KNL4QEDFVU2FJ6UVR5CJ/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470243455235-WJ1118QQZHHVCAQ3R9XJ/image-asset.png An Electoral System in Crisis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480042813254-SI1UO1F1WI12PJT32C41/Racine+Co+Tab+WI+2016+GE+Pres+Evans.PNG An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 2A - Racine County WI has an unexpected statistical pattern. The candidates' percentages never stabilize even after 80,000 votes are counted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470283052259-KLA7IHP51O18UOT0CONA/image-asset.jpeg An Electoral System in Crisis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1480048759078-C8T2EDYQCQUVP076LPEP/Milwaukee+Co+WI+2016+Sen+Guzy.PNG An Electoral System in Crisis Figure 3 - Milwaukee County WI has an unexpected statistical pattern. The candidates' percentages never stabilize even after 400,000 votes are counted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579f40a01b631bd12f10c29e/1470255129754-NT3QXEV71H9O0LQ5288O/image-asset.jpeg An Electoral System in Crisis